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Thread: hey dr young and jeff

  1. #11
    Senior Member
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    Jun 2005
    Off cource this will have impact globaly as well. Just did not wanted to say that in the middle of all this horror. Cause now people lives is most imoprtant.

  2. #12
    The Gulf of Mexico supplies 25% of the United States' energy and over 90% of the oil output in the Gulf has stopped flowing. Although oil prices are stabilizing at $68/barrel because of the release of oil from the National Emergency Reserve but gasoline prices are surging due to the shutdown of 8 major Gulf refineries. Making matters worse, Katrina shut down the major oil import terminal in Louisiana that accounts for over 10% of the U.S. oil imports. They don't know when they will be able to open that port. All the above is occurring the week before Labor day, traditionally the biggest driving day in the year. With gasoline prices surging to $3 or more, many people are probably deciding to stay home.

    In the meantime, more bad news keeps coming out. Over 40,000 homes were destroyed in the suburbs east of New Orleans. In addition to flood waters, fires are raging in many parts of New Orleans fed by leaking gas pipes. Over 2.7 million people in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana and Mississippi are still without power. Over a million people have been displaced and have no place to go to for several weeks. They are not even picking up the dead bodies yet... just painting the rooftops with red paint when they find them. Preliminary reports of thousands of missing are beginning to appear. The likelihood of an epidemic of disease is very high with so much of the land covered by polluted waters and no source of clean water to drink. Food supplies are almost depleted and whatever foods there are in refridgerators are spoiled, with no way of delivering food to many parts of the city. Most of the hospitals had to be evacuated, resulting in no place to take the injured. This is shaping up to be the disaster of disasters.

    The New York Times is still hewing to the estimates of $15-$25 billion for privately insured losses. The stock of insurance companies fell for the third day in a row but only by 2-3%. Investors are banking on the National Flood Insurance Program covering homes and businesses; that program has 4.3 million policies covering over $600 billion of property, providing up to $250,000 for residential buildings and $100,000 for personal residences. But, many companies have cross-coverage with both private and NFIP. Swiss Re (the world's second largest reinsurer is estimating $26 billion

    I think the insurance companies are underestimating and the market will really drop on them as the magnitude of this disaster hits. It is time to short insurance stocks.

    Last edited by Wise Young; 08-31-2005 at 09:03 PM.

  3. #13
    Senior Member DA's Avatar
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    Jul 2001
    beaumont tx usa
    "due to the shutdown of 8 major Gulf refineries"
    the number is closer to 2 major refineries. Exxon has the largest refinery, other than exxon baton rouge, everything else is mid-size to small refineries. Those figures are hyped. the oil companys are price gouging.

  4. #14
    Senior Member DA's Avatar
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    Jul 2001
    beaumont tx usa
    take a look...

    Louisiana has 17 active refineries. At its peak, the state had more than 30 operating refineries. The operating refineries in Louisiana account for approximately 16 percent of the nation's refining capacity.

  5. #15
    Before I say anything more, I want to say that I hope that this discussion is not being perceived as insensitive, that we are discussing these types or issues when thousands of people are still stranded without food or water, and are trying to survive. This is a way of taking my mind off the tragedy.

    DA, there are at least six refineries that are closed, according to the following news story from bloomberg at 4 pm today. Putting that list together with the Louisiana refineries on the list that you had and their capacities, I am assuming that when there are multiple sites, all the sites have close.

    ConocoPhillips (Lake Charles, Belle Chasse): 250,000+250,000 = 500,000
    Chevron Corp.: probably in Mississipi
    Motiva Enterprises LLC (Convent, Norco): 225,000+220,000 = 445,000
    Murphy Oil Corp. (Meraux): 95,000
    Marathon Oil Corp.: probably in Mississippi
    Chalmette Refining (Chalmette): 182,500.

    The article estimate about 1.8 million barrels a day of refining capacity. There is reassuring news.
    • Power restoration. By late yesterday, only 1.4 million customers were without power late yesterday, instead of the 2.7 million from earlier.
    • Oil import terminal may open by this evening.
    • Oil prices are stable at $65-70 per barrel.
    • Valero refinery in St. Charles, one of the biggest with 245,000 barrel capacity, will resume operation in 1-2 weeks.


    Port Opening

    ``We have people on the platform and working to restore communication right now,'' said Mark Bugg, scheduling manager at New Orleans-based Loop LLC, the port operator. ``A tanker may dock this afternoon and possibly offload by this evening.''

    The oil port stopped unloading tankers on Aug. 27 as Kristina approached. Port Fourchon in Louisiana, a staging area for workers who staff Gulf oil and natural-gas production platforms, opened this morning after damage was cleared.

    Kerr-McGee Corp. said today that most of its facilities avoided serious damage and 55,000 barrels of daily oil and gas production was restored at production platforms.

    About 30 percent of U.S. oil production comes from offshore platforms in the Gulf, while the region accounts for 24 percent of the country's gas output.

    Lost Production

    The storm shut 1.37 million barrels of daily crude-oil output, according to the U.S. Minerals Management Service, which manages offshore resources. The storm shut 8.3 billion cubic feet a day of gas production, or 83 percent of normal production and less than the 8.8 billion reported yesterday.

    Natural gas for October delivery fell 18.7 cents, or 1.6 percent, to close at $11.472 per million British thermal units in New York. Futures touched $12.30, the highest since the contract was introduced in 1990. Prices have more than doubled in the past year.

    Eight refineries in Louisiana and Mississippi were closed, halting at least 1.79 million barrels a day of refining capacity.

    Valero Energy Corp. estimated that its refinery in St. Charles, Louisiana, will resume operations in one to two weeks, after it was shut Aug. 28 because of the hurricane and lost power. The refinery has capacity to process 245,000 barrels of crude a day. Valero also slowed processing at its plant in Krotz Springs, Louisiana.

    Refinery Closures

    ConocoPhillips, Chevron Corp., Motiva Enterprises LLC, Murphy Oil Corp., Marathon Oil Corp. and Chalmette Refining also closed plants over the weekend.

    Shireman said major oil companies have stopped selling unbranded gasoline to independent retailers in Illinois and have cut back on contract allotments. He declined to say which companies were halting unbranded sales. The wholesale price he pays for gasoline has ``gone up about 80 cents a gallon in two days,'' he said.

    Retail prices have now surpassed levels not seen for 25 years. Gasoline prices surged then because of the Iranian revolution of 1979 and the country's war against Iraq, helping send the U.S. economy into recession. Retail prices peaked at a nationwide average $1.38 a gallon in 1981, according to the Energy Department. That's about $2.95 in today's dollars.


    Traders are watching the Colonial Pipeline, the world's biggest network of petroleum-product pipelines, which carries gasoline and distillate fuels from Houston to New York harbor. Colonial Pipeline Co., owner of the network, said today two lines shut on Aug. 29 because of power failures will be started this weekend. Distillates include heating oil and diesel.

    ``Once the refineries start making the product you have to transport it,'' said Mark Routt, a senior consultant at Energy Security Analysis, Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. ``We have to watch the pipelines to the Midwest and the Northeast. The Northeast is less of an issue because we can get cargoes from Europe. Florida has a big problem because 60 to 70 percent of their gasoline is barged across the Gulf.''

    ``The biggest issue is getting power to these facilities,'' said Chris Ovrebo, a broker with FC Stone LLC in Eden Prairie, Minnesota. ``Most of these refineries didn't sustain heavy damage,'' he said. ``It's not going to take them six months to get back on line.''

    No Power

    About 1.4 million customers were without power late yesterday from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, down from more than 2.1 million earlier in the day, according to estimates from Entergy Corp., Cleco Corp. and Southern Co., the parent companies of utilities in Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.

    An Energy Department report today showed a ninth straight weekly drop in U.S. gasoline supplies, as record prices did little to curtail demand at the pump. Gasoline inventories fell 508,000 barrels last week to 194.4 million. Crude-oil inventories declined 1.5 million barrels to 321.4 million, the department reported.

    Supplies of distillate fuel rose 2.7 million barrels to 135.2 million last week, the report showed. It was the 15th straight increase and left stockpiles 7 percent higher than a year ago.

    Heating oil for September delivery fell 2.29 cents, or 1.1 percent, to close at $2.053 a gallon. Futures touched $2.101 during the session, the highest in 27 years of trading on the exchange. Heating oil is 85 percent higher than a year ago.

  6. #16
    Senior Member DA's Avatar
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    Jul 2001
    beaumont tx usa
    dr young, norco is west of new orleans. far enough not to suffer category 4 winds. lake charles is 20 miles from the texas stateline, nowhere near katrina.
    so we are talking only about 8 percent of the nations refining capibility.

  7. #17
    DA, I didn't know that you are such an expert on oil and gas production. I am impressed.

    Here is an assessment estimating 10% loss of the nation's refining capacity:

    Wednesday, August 31, 2005 Updated at 9:16 PM EDT
    From Thursday's Globe and Mail

    Hurricane Katrina has become the disaster scenario that the oil market has fretted about for months: a sudden, massive disruption to an already overstretched refining industry.
    Some information from this article:
    • 20 oil rigs and platforms are missing int he Gulf and one ruptured gas pipeline is on fire. The status of many other rigs and platforms are uncertain. This seems to be worse that most other news sources suggest.
    • Although restoration of electricity is the main reason why most of the refineries are down, there is water damage from the flooding that may delay the re-opening of many of the refineries.
    • US EPA is suspending summer sulphur and anti-pollution measures to increase the efficiency of refiners and allow earlier releases of stockpiled winter fuel.
    • Nine refineries with a combined refining capacity of 1.8 barrles of oil are not shut down, representing 10% of the total U.S. refining capacity. Seven refineries as far away as Texas and Tennesse are at reduced capacity due to suspended offshore production and problems with pipelines. Refiner margins have tripled.
    • 95% of oil and 88% of natural gas production in the Gulf has been shut down, equal to 1.43 million barrels of oil and 8.8 billion cubic feet of gas per day.

  8. #18
    Bad news keeps coming.
    Critical U.S. Supply Line Is Disrupted
    By Neil Irwin
    Washington Post Staff Writer
    Thursday, September 1, 2005; Page A01

    The effects of the monster storm that devastated the Gulf Coast spread through the nation's economy yesterday, disrupting shipping and rail networks and sending prices for lumber, coffee and other commodities soaring.
    New Orleans is the main path for 60% of US grain exports and 26% of the nation's natural gas and crude oil. Some 49 billion of other goods flow in and out of the ports of New Orleans and the Mississipi. Many trucking and rail carriers have stopped all freight traffic through the area, with no clear indication of when they will resume.

    Significant portions of the nation's supply of a number of items has been disrupted, with very likely steep rises in the prices of these items as shortages develop, for example:
    • Coffee. New Orlean warehouses hold 211 million pounds of coffee, a quarter of the nation's supply. Coffee prices is already up to $1.01/lb.
    • Bananas. Chiquita reports severe damage to its facility which stores over a quarter of the nation's banana supply.

    Stoppage of nearly 60% of the nation's grain will result in large increases in shipping costs of grain (moving grain by train costs 5x as much) and alternative shipping paths lack specialized storage and equipment needed to handle the grains. As the article points out, "a glut of grain and widespread spoilage could yield a disastrous season for farmers".

    The article tried to find some "bright" side to the news, saying that this may be the start of a economic boom for the depressed economy but the news that it cited to support this was bad also. Lumber prices have already jumped by $10 to $297 per thousand board feet. I think that concrete and steel prices will likewise jump in the coming months.

    Economists are now revising their estimates of US output but are also struggling to put a brighter face on the situation. They are holding back estimates until more information regarding the energy impact is available. But, a 10% reduction and the corresponding price increases will hit the economy hard. The economic impact of Katrina is going to be far greater than 9/11, which disrupted the economy for only a week or so. It will be many months for New Orleans. The reverberations will be substantial with 10% or greater increases of food, energy, and other commodity prices.

    Last edited by Wise Young; 09-01-2005 at 07:30 AM.

  9. #19
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    Jun 2005
    Unbelievable. This must be the most serious nature catastrophe ever in modern America’s history.

  10. #20
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    Nov 2004
    Digital refugee
    This is a very interesting thread, athough I'm still trying to get my head around the human aspect which is undoubtedly for many tragic and for many more a royal pain it is sobering to realise how fragile even an economic powerhouse can be to a single act of mother nature. I'm a little surprised there is not more world coverage, although I suspect it is taking a while for the scale to sink in, much like with the asian tsunami.
    DA, please be assured that I am not aware of anyone claiming that the USA deserved it or it was someone or others fault.
    I hope the rest of the world pitches in where possible.... I am guessing it is more a problem of logistics than resources though.

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