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Thread: Any guesses on the bottom?

  1. #1
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    Any guesses on the bottom?

    I know nobody really can know, but I wonder if any of you that follow these things has any predictions about where we’re headed, where the bottom might be. I'm holding off on reinvesting thinking maybe we still might go downs thousands. But when I see these hundreds of points days, I wonder if now is the time.

    I know this is going against all rules – dollar cost average, don't try to time the market – and certainly if I'm going to break the rules I should have some idea what I'm doing. But 2008 still entices me.
    Last edited by Random; 08-18-2011 at 03:15 PM.

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    Senior Member TomRL's Avatar
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    One interesting way to guess is to look at the DJ Total Market Index as a percent of GDP. When the it gets down to 75%, you're supposed to be at a buy point. That number was about 93% at the end of July and 83% at yesterday's close.
    Tom

    "Blessed are the pessimists, for they hath made backups." Exasperated 20:12

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    So if you believe this and are waiting to get back in, what would you recommend doing?
    --------------------------
    Are large-cap stocks about to nosedive?
    The “Dead Cross"—a bearish technical indicator that occurs when a market's 50-day moving average crosses below its 200-day moving average—was triggered at the end of trading for large-cap stocks on Tuesday, according to Dow Jones Indexes. The Dead Cross is sometimes known as the "Death Cross."
    As a result, Dow Jones says the stock allocation for its Dow Jones Golden Crossover U.S. Large-Cap Total Stock Market Index will "gradually decrease" within the next five days to 25 percent from 100 percent.
    David Krein, senior director, product development and analytics of Dow Jones Indexes, says that this condition has occurred once or twice a year over the past decade, sometimes more, sometimes not at all. With regard to large-cap equities, the "Dead Cross" means that a downward trend in the market has begun or is about to begin.
    "This is the only index that tracks this occurrence," he says. "The index is making the decision that investors would have had to make themselves." The indicator is a warning, says Krein that investors in large-cap equities "should begin exiting from the market" and move into less-risky assets.
    A dramatic example of the "Dead Cross" occurred following the market peak in 2007 through the market trough in 2009. ...

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/44344032

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