I keep my wish list next to my Dear Santa letters.![]()
you are right. its sad to say. but sometimes the truth hurts.
imagine, bill gates, net worth... $61B. Warren buffett... $44B. Sergey and Larry of Google... $18.7B each. Mark Zuckerberg $17.5B.
as of april, there were 1153 BILLIONAIRES in the world. if they all gave up 1M, which they wouldnt ever even notice missing, that could be our X prize of 1 billion dollars.![]()
Last edited by Barrington314mx; 06-21-2012 at 08:53 PM.
Dr. Young,
I seldom log on any more, but I am glad you have made progress with the clinical trial infrastructure. I can't imagine the work and effort you have devoted to make this happen.
With best regards.
Paolo,
DTI does not only represent myelinated axons. It also detects bundles of unmyelinated axons. 3.0 Tesla MRI can detect structures that are <1 mm in diameter. If it does not detect such bundles at the injury site before treatment, this indicates that there were no bundles of axons (myelinated or not) that exceed a mm in diameter crossing the injury site. If, after treatment, such bundles appear, that would be strongly suggestive of regrowth of axons. Of course, if such structures correlate with sensory and motor recovery, that would be more convincing.
Wise.
Grammy,
Yes, one would need to do a formal pathological analysis with the specific formulation that one would be using for the trial in a rodent species and a large animal species, applied in the intended dose and route to the target tissue. It would not be enough to do this in a herniated disc and it is also not clear that Seikagaku would allow anybody else to use their data for an IND.
Wise.
Last edited by Wise Young; 06-22-2012 at 01:14 PM.
Paolo, I also have interest in the DTI data. MRI is inadequate to differentiate axons from any other strand of tissue in the vicinity of the lesion. We do know that Schwann cells enter cord lesions over time and remain there. They can have thin elongated processes and they are known to attract sensory axons from the adjacent roots into the core of the lesion. But these axons never get out of the lesion and if anything they may contribute to chronic pain. An MRI can't differentiate sensory fibers from axons that might have come from other sources above or below the lesion. Also even if they could MRI image possible axons in a lesion over time we couldn't just conclude that these have regenerated through and beyond the lesion. Without a specific axonal label they are not capable of being followed further within the complex environment of the cord beyond the injury cavity. That is why decades of research has gone into methodology to both anterogradely and retrogradely label truly regenerating axons. We don't know if stem cells are actually building bridges or not. So far, there is nothing in the literature that cells can do this even at acute stages or chronic stages. Cells injected into lesions have no alignment so without additional efforts to draw the axons along or push them along with something else like neurotrophins or pTEN deletion or allow them to exit the bridge with ch'ase there is no lengthy regeneration. At best you might get swirling axons inside the lesion core. So far there is very little evidence that chronically lesioned axons can continue to extend long axons once they are guided into the distal cord. Even if they could verify that axons have regenerated, they would need to re-lesion them or perform pharmacological experiments to show that regained function and have nothing else disappear. These kinds of experiments are essential to prove that these regenerating fibers are involved with return of function. Without these additional experiments to alter the regenerated axons, the evidence remains unsubstantiated. That is a critical reason why we need solid animal studies prior to using similar strategies in therapies on humans.
Paolo,
Let us examine each of the assumptions behind your far reaching conclusion that networks are not necessary:
1. You seem to be assuming that recruitment of chronic spinal cord injury patients is easy. Let me assure you that it is not. Despite substantial effort and a great deal of publicity for two years, Hong Kong University and the Chinese University of Hong Kong were not able to find more than 8 chronic ASIA A patients that had neurological levels between C5 and T11. Even in Kunming, where they operate on over 400 acute spinal cord injury cases per year and where there is no dearth of acute or chronic patients, it took over 6 months to recruit and transplant 20 chronic SCI subjects. There are many reasons why individual patients may not fulfill inclusion and exclusion criteria, are not ready or available for the trials, or are not willing to take the risk, etc. I believe that we probably should not expect any individual center anywhere in the world except China to treat and assess more than 20 patients per year.
2. The numbers of patients required for phase 3 trials are larger than you are assuming for the following reasons. First, you must have controls and multiple treatment groups. In the U.S., we will need to compare all components of a treatment against a combination before you can conclude that the combination is effective. In the case of UCBMC and lithium, this means that you need to have four treatment groups: rehabilitation only, rehabilition + lithium, rehabilitation + UCBMC, and rehabilitation + UCBMC + lithium. If you need 50 subjects per treatment group, that will require 200 subjects. Second, we must consider injury variables. So far, we are talking about only ASIA A subjects. Perhaps the treatment would work in ASIA B and C. Just including these two groups would triple the number of subjects. Third, we must consider treatment variables. For example, if we want to assess whether intensive locomotor training is necessary (the rehab alone group answers the question of sufficiency but not necessity), we would have to have UCBMC+lithium with and without locomotor training. If we want to know whether HLA-matching is necessary, i.e. compare HLA 4:6, 5:6, and 6:6 matches, a trial of 400 subjects would be required. Only a network can do trials of over 100 subjects.
3. You are assuming that chronic spinal cord injury subjects will travel and return for followup exams and therefore clinical trial centers can be located anywhere. It is a good idea and I have in fact looked into this possibility of setting up a center in one place where many people would go. I grant you that many patients may be willing to travel. If it were only the surgery, it might even be possible to do a trial where the subjects come back for followup examinations. In my experience, however, many people do not keep their promises. There are many reasons why people do not come back, not the least of which is that it is expensive and time-consuming for somebody to travel long distances for examinations. Particularly if they do not think the treatment is working, they don't come back. Each subject represents investments of over $100,000 to treat in a clinical trial and if they do not come back for followup, that investment is lost. The requirement for intensive and prolonged rehabilitation may further restrict the number of subjects. Our preliminary data suggest that if you don't engage in intensive walking training, locomotor recovery will be limited. This factor alone is likely to severely limit clinical trial tourism. Will everybody who travels to join a clinical trial be ready to give up 3 months of their lives and to return again at 6 months and a year (or more) after the treatment? Some might but I suspect that many would not be able to do it.
4. You assume that the results of a single trial center would be credible to the rest of the world. I can assure you that this is not the case. I know of many groups that have done 20-50 subject trials and showed very promising results and then cannot get their results published in the best journals. The reviewers turn down the papers and say that they don't believe. The reviewers are tantamount to saying that the investigators are lying. To be credible, particularly in controversial or first-in-human therapeutic successes, you must have multicenter phase 3 trials to convince the rest of the world that the treatment is efficaceous.
Finally, you cite Schwab and Buchli who are calling for more phase 1 and 2 proof-of-concept trials. I agree that we should have more phase 1 and 2 trials, but not at the expense of not doing phase 3 trials. Phase 3 trials are essential for proving efficacy and obtaining regulatory approval. Phase 1 and 2 trials are pre-coital, if you know what I mean. If we want therapies to be approved by the regulatory authorities, they must pass through phase 3 trials. We must do phase 3 trials if the treatments are to help people. Let me give you an example from the sports world. It would be like preparing a racing car to win all the time trials and get a good pole position but not having the funds to take the car to the final race. The phase 3 trial is not only the final race, it is the only race that counts. Multicenter trials are essential for phase 3 and networks are essential for efficient multicenter trials.
Wise.
Last edited by Wise Young; 06-22-2012 at 07:32 PM.
Last edited by Wise Young; 06-22-2012 at 08:16 PM.