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Thread: When is HOG a buy?

  1. #1

    When is HOG a buy?

    It's back to 1998 lows.

    Its PE is 5.

    If you can wait three years, wouldn't you pull the trigger?
    And the truth shall set you free.

  2. #2
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    Hog

    I held Harley for about 13 years, sold it at $45, watched it go up to mid 50s and then start a downward spiral. This morning it was at 14 and change, I think.

    Still a well ran company, but the product is certainly discretionary, and these being hard times it's tough to own the stock. May be fine for a long time buy and hold, say five years.
    You C.A.N.
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  3. #3
    Suspended Andy's Avatar
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    Not until the bulk of potential sales is able to pony up perfect credit, not worry about having a job or having the property tax murder them while home value plummets, etc etc etc.

    Past earnings are not a basis for future earning, even if grossly estimated too high.

    Actually just wait for short squeezes on the indexes and short those when they peter out, seems the easiest thing to do in this market lately, too spooky. Avoid going long anything IMO

    Or just stay in cash to avoid the sideways churn, although I'm still playing my XOM 80 puts till tommorrow, after that I'm hanging in cash for a while, market's getting kinda lame. I miss the 500 point swings on the Dow, lol

  4. #4
    How about Blizzard Activision?

    Diablo III is coming out and they still have ever evolving WOW monthly memberships.
    And the truth shall set you free.

  5. #5
    Senior Member fishin'guy's Avatar
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    ooohh shit, I was thinking at just about 6-9 months, fatten for 2 more then butcher it. Sorry, wrong idea'

  6. #6
    Suspended Andy's Avatar
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    Earnings this week...and HOG is warn...err...announcing them. My take on this is dead money, they'll miss with the frozen credit issue, but with it down so much p/e wise I'm sure it will be a wash and go nowhere.

    Then again, they seem to have a bunch of debt, so maybe we're talking some movement once those shocking numbers come out...maybe I'll buy some puts on it this week and front run the earnings for fun.

    Here's to a nice rally pop marketwide this week, I need to reload as I'm positionless, although those European cowards sold off today already, grrr

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by fishin'guy View Post
    ooohh shit, I was thinking at just about 6-9 months, fatten for 2 more then butcher it. Sorry, wrong idea'
    lol i was thinking the same thing lol

    i play hd and low got lucky on them.

    yes i miss those 500 plus swings it was fun made a bunch of money and lost some too

  8. #8
    Suspended Andy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by vjls View Post

    yes i miss those 500 plus swings it was fun made a bunch of money and lost some too
    I'm thinking that we're going to retest those Nov lows and maybe then some. Things seem to be moving right along again

    Looked over HOG, but passed on it, bigger fish to fry. No rally today but in with SPY 86 feb puts and AAPL 85 feb puts this morning anyway, I'm liking them so far.

  9. #9

    Stock traders thread

    Thoughts on io and mro, if we are at or near oil bottom?
    And the truth shall set you free.

  10. #10
    Senior Member smokey's Avatar
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    MRO, Cramer was positive on it just last night.....whatever that's worth to you. It is down 43%. Check out TSO and VLO for refinery plays too.

    But Cramer called Marathon "twice blessed," a stock with both a great chart and positive fundamentals, despite its less than stellar performance last year.

    According to the charts, Marathon's climax sell-off was in November, and ever since then, the stock has been slowly gaining steam.

    Usually, Cramer said, there is a positive relationship between refiners and the price of crude oil, However, since November, there's been a positive divergence between crude and Marathon as Marathon slowly climbs upward while crude oil continues to decline.

    Looking at the fundamentals, Cramer said there are also positives. Marathon is both an oil refiner and an oil producer. Typically refiners make more money as the price of crude falls allowing for higher margins.

    In addition, there has been a lot of talk about Marathon splitting into two companies. Cramer said this is a classic case of the parts being worth more than the whole. He thinks the split will happen after the credit markets thaw. Frankly MRO doesn't really appeal to me but I'm still wiping the puke off myself after yesterday's thrashing. I don't know what a good investment is anymore. The CEO's lie, the numbers are terribly complex, suspect and always revised and the economy is on life support. I'm sure there are good investments somewhere, I'm just not willing to bet on them right now.

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