Black monday!

[TheRainman]

I hope i'm wrong but it's looking real bad right now. The white house and the fed don't know what to do. Bernanke looked scared today infront of congress. If your not protecting yourself on the down side just get out of the market. Save yourself some pain.

[LaMemChose]

I hope i'm wrong but it's looking real bad right now. The white house and the fed don't know what to do. Bernanke looked scared today infront of congress. If your not protecting yourself on the down side just get out of the market. Save yourself some pain.

I disagree with ditching what's in the market. Investing in the market is for the long-term, not the short. When I say long term, I'm talking a minimum of ten years. Ditch now and get prepped to bend over and have it hurt big.

Hopefully anyone investing in stocks will have assets which are much more available, less volatile. Also, anyone in the market should have enough in very liquid assets to cover any unforeseeables like a job loss. Staying liquid through unemployment should not entail cashing in the kids college fund or retirement, but unfortunately many have not saved for such an occuurrence and will cash in a lifetime's worth of well-intentioned financial planning.

That's just my two cents and I'm talking my two cents not in the market. ;)

[alpentalic]

That's my take on things too Lamem. If I'm selling any shares, it's to take advantage of the many great depreciated stocks available these days.
Long term investing takes nerves of steel when you're watching a years worth of gains slip away by the hour.

[Annabanana]

I think its wrong to tell people to get out now...seek financial advice from a professional first.

I am holding on, as I am in it for the longer term. I can wait for stocks to bounce back. But I do feel for people who might have been on the verge of selling, and now this has happened.

Our markets fell by 2.5% in the first half hour.

On a brighter side, like alpentalic said, should be some good bargains coming up!

[LaMemChose]

Agreed, Anna and Alpentalic.

It does take nerves of steel. Anyone in the market should have that mindset before placing any serious money there. Otherwise it can drive an investor crazy.

Two of my friends (they're a couple) watch the stock ticker daily. It's crazy. They consider what they gain and lose by the hour. I know they are groaning today.

When they visited me at the beach last summer, they spent much of their time in front of a screen watching the market. The ocean was a mere dozen yards from the front door at highest of tides and those two were camped indoors under the a/c watching the market.

Anyone's idea of a great vacay? Hmmmmmmmm ...

As I told them, you don't win or lose money unless you are actually moving your stocks anyway, so who cares? They apparently don't agree with this concept. They're each wealthy by anyone's standard, but often miserable because their happiness seems tied into what they "gain" or "lose" in their irindividual portfolios.

I'll continue to watch the market and the overall economy, but I'm not in a panic and won't be.

We haven't seen the worst of the fallout from the subprime disaster yet. We'll be dealing with it for years to come.

Again, just my two cents.

[TheRainman]

I think its wrong to tell people to get out now...seek financial advice from a professional first.

I am holding on, as I am in it for the longer term. I can wait for stocks to bounce back. But I do feel for people who might have been on the verge of selling, and now this has happened.

Our markets fell by 2.5% in the first half hour.

On a brighter side, like alpentalic said, should be some good bargains coming up!

Anna

When it comes to the stock market the profeessionals are amateurs. Did you know that 80% of all mutual funds under perform the S&P 500 INDEX. Never pay someone to pick stocks for you. If you don't have the time or the know how to pick stocks, put your money in a index fund.

[TheRainman]

That's my take on things too Lamem. If I'm selling any shares, it's to take advantage of the many great depreciated stocks available these days.
Long term investing takes nerves of steel when you're watching a years worth of gains slip away by the hour.

Al

Thats why you need to take some profits when your up big. Nothing goes up for ever.

[TheRainman]

LeMemClose

I agree with you on the warren buffet approach. That's the best way if your not going to make it a full time activity. Me, I love the day trading.

[Hawkeyes]

Warren Buffett: "Be greedy when others are fearful."

Warren's wisdom aside, I adjusted my funds yesterday, going quite conservative for now.

Joe

[Foolish Old]

Well, the President's announcement of his economic incentive plan really turned the market around in short order today.:( DOW - 180 plus up to 125 plus on the downside. Markets rely on confidence. It's clear Bush has no clue where to go from here.

[Mike C]

If you were heavy tech in 2001, you got slaughtered. Some stocks never recovered.

[LaMemChose]

I'm curious about something, Rainman. As a day trader, why would you give generic advice to dump stocks? Seems that could hurt many.

Also, when it comes to Warren Buffet, I'm aware of who he is, but unaware (until this thread) of his investing strategies. Sounds as though I should bone up on his philosophies, eh? They seem in line with what I've been told through the years by those I trust for financial advice.

[Andy]

Should be interesting if the wholesale panic will continue next week. Although with options expiration today it is kinda hard to get a good feel if the panic is real or not. Wait till next week for the show...

I'll say this...Bernake, Bush, Paulson yapping this week, looks like they are running out of government-type talking heads to parade in front of the cameras :p

[LaMemChose]

I hear you, Andy. The proposed incentives of $800 per individual and $1,600 per couple are not the answer. It'll take more than $800 per adult, income tax filing person to reverse this economy. That's but a Bandaid on a gunshot wound.

[TheRainman]

I'm curious about something, Rainman. As a day trader, why would you give generic advice to dump stocks? Seems that could hurt many.

Also, when it comes to Warren Buffet, I'm aware of who he is, but unaware (until this thread) of his investing strategies. Sounds as though I should bone up on his philosophies, eh? They seem in line with what I've been told through the years by those I trust for financial advice.

LeMemClose

Warren Buffet is the second riches man in the world and made all his money trading stocks. His philosophy is to invest in a company for long periods of time until the fundimentals has changed. He does not believe in market timing. And that approach is great buit if you know that were going into hard times like a month ago you would of saved yourself a lot of money and get back in at a lot lower price.

And this is just my opinion but I think he's like that because he's from the old school. 15 years ago commissions on trading in and out would kill your portfolio, but with trading cost and taxes so cheap today it doesn't make sense to watch your capital vanish.

[LaMemChose]

LeMemClose

Warren Buffet is the second riches man in the world and made all his money trading stocks. His philosophy is to invest in a company for long periods of time until the fundimentals has changed. He does not believe in market timing. And that approach is great buit if you know that were going into hard times like a month ago you would of saved yourself a lot of money and get back in at a lot lower price.

And this is just my opinion but I think he's like that because he's from the old school. 15 years ago commissions on trading in and out would kill your portfolio, but with trading cost and taxes so cheap today it doesn't make sense to watch your capital vanish.

Hey, Rainman. I'm aware Buffet is incredibly wealthy and also that he isn't leaving his vast fortunes to his family. He saw they received good educations and then, they were and are on their own. Somehow I like that.

I did not know his investing philosophy, still don't other than very vaguely. I enjoy reading so will look into hitting anything he's written the next time I buy books.

I don't think most view the market as get rich quick, but I could be wrong. I view it as a long-term tool, as part of an overall financial plan. Hopefully most do not have the bulk of their savings in the market. If so, they must be singing the blues after this week.

I feel for those who are hovering at or around age 60, who are on the cusp of retirement. This week must have shaken many to the core depending upon how their portfolios are established. It may well have some almost retirees contemplating more years of work before beginning the next phases of their lives.

Hope the market and your financial choices treat you well. :)

[TheRainman]

LaMemClose

I don't think putting all your money in any one sector. And if your retiring in the next five years I would put them into safer less risky investments. And if your not able to keep up with the investment your into you should invest in index funds or ETF'S.

Another good investor that you might find a good read is Peter Lynch.

[TheRainman]

I was hoping I would be wrong but it was a bloody monday around the world financial markets. It is looking ugly for the U.S. markets tomorrow. This can be fun if you hit it just right. There's still a lot of ifs in the air. Like will bernanke drop rates or will bush or paulson come up with a better bailout package. And if they do it would just be a short time band-aid. On any kind of rally up I would short the russell 2000.

The only thing that can stop the bleeding in my opinion is a bailout of the financials. But I dought they'll do that with the elections coming up. Voters wouldn't like take.

This is starting to look real serious.

[Sue Pendleton]

I hear you, Andy. The proposed incentives of $800 per individual and $1,600 per couple are not the answer. It'll take more than $800 per adult, income tax filing person to reverse this economy. That's but a Bandaid on a gunshot wound.

They could start by reversing the tax on all dividends and interest like pre-Carter and Reagen. Where is the incentive to save when any and all gains are taxed? Get those off the 1040A AGI and we might see a decent recovery.

[wheelchairTITAN]

Wait for tomorrow ... OUCH! US Markets closed today and the rest of the world markets down 5-10% today (Jan 21 2008).

[Mike C]

Asia got slaughtered again. Europe looks bad...gonna be a rough day.

[Andy]

Wow, things should be interesting today when the US markets open. I hope you guys are short something/anything. Happy trading!

[TheRainman]

Paulson speech sucks. Just in fed lowers funds rate by 75 bp's. We might get a bounce. Short the bounds.

With this rate cut, that tells me were not at the bottom yet. They should of waited and done that at the end of the week. It would of shook out all the sellers.

[Wise Young]

Falls in stock values only mean one thing... time to buy. Wise.

[Eileen]

My pension is falling apart thanks to falling stock prices. Fortunately, I don't have to start collecting it for a couple of years, but it is sort of scary to open the quarterly statement only to see how much less I have than I did three months ago!

[Foolish Old]

Falls in stock values only mean one thing... time to buy. Wise.Is this a call to selflessly serve the national interest or financial advice? If the latter, it's just a little too pat. One must examine their individual investment goals to determine if this is the best course for them to pursue in this market. My gut tells me that there is not a significant enough amount of fear driven selling to predict a bottom at these levels. Also, one may need a fairly long investment horizon to realize gains from current purchases.

[Mike C]

Amazing what happened in the DAX this morning. The market tanked over 300 points...it actually took a few minutes for the computers to display on the big board because of all the sell order calculations...and then the market shot back up within an hours time and wiped that decline out. Day traders must have been wigging out playing under such conditions. The DAX was the only major EU exchange to stay in the red...pessimism is well entrenched here.

[TheRainman]

A great day in the market. Lucky for me that I sold all my puts before I left for work. When I left it was down over 100 pts and when I had a minute just before the close it was up near 300 pts. It came to my attention after the close that the administration is talking about a bailout of the mortgage reinsurance companies. Very bullish for the market. If true this could get us moving to the up side.

I would still be care but i'm going to start buying a little bit at a time. This could be a short cover rally so I would cover myself. Good luck.

[Andy]

I'm of the opinion that short covering rally might continue...at least I'm crossing my fingers on that one, lol. Those C calls looked interesting a few days ago so I picked some up. Looks like that was a good guess so far :)

[TheRainman]

I'm of the opinion that short covering rally might continue...at least I'm crossing my fingers on that one, lol. Those C calls looked interesting a few days ago so I picked some up. Looks like that was a good guess so far :)

I'm still scared of the financials. Still don't know whats on their books.

We still need them to follow thru with that baoilout of the mortgage reinsurance companies or all bets are off.

If we get another big up day i'm going to buy some puts on the djx.

[Andy]

Yeah, no kidding. I really dont care what's on the books, more of a technical play, I'm not sticking around that long.

[TheRainman]

I was hoping for a rally up put with the market not being able to go up on the earnings of microsoft and all the optimism in the air I think were in for a tough week next week. We have employment numbers and the fed meeting and I think they both will end in disapointment.

[TheRainman]

I was reading the palm beach post this morning and they had an article asking local people if we were in a recesssion. Just about everyone said yes. But the one interest part was the interview with the owner of a 15 chain south florida spoerts bar. He said we are definitly in a recession but it hasn't hurt his business enough to cut back on employees or investing in up grades to the restaurants. And this is in an area of the country that got really hit hard in the real estate industry.

So i'm thinking, when this bear market turns look at the restaurant stocks to be one of the leaders to the upside. Couple of my favorites would be Mcdonalds, buffalo wild wings and dardens owner of red lobster and olive gardens. JMO.

[Andy]

Couple of my favorites would be Mcdonalds,

Yeah, with that 5% haircut today, seems like a deal, lol. I figure that once the world comes to an end, as most headlines are screaming, restaurant customers wont have much disposable income to spend. Then again, maybe the world wont come to an end after all, all they gotta do is keep dropping the rates. Hopefully someone will loan that money out this time around to someone, cross your fingers! When is the election? :p

I figure a trader's market now, 5 year cycle is done with. "Investing" wouldnt be too bright IMO.

So...looks like the financials caught a bid this afternoon, will this continue on, or will doom and despair drive those stocks to $0.00 post-Fed meetings? Your thoughts?

[TheRainman]

Yeah, with that 5% haircut today, seems like a deal, lol. I figure that once the world comes to an end, as most headlines are screaming, restaurant customers wont have much disposable income to spend. Then again, maybe the world wont come to an end after all, all they gotta do is keep dropping the rates. Hopefully someone will loan that money out this time around to someone, cross your fingers! When is the election? :p

I figure a trader's market now, 5 year cycle is done with. "Investing" wouldnt be too bright IMO.

So...looks like the financials caught a bid this afternoon, will this continue on, or will doom and despair drive those stocks to $0.00 post-Fed meetings? Your thoughts?

Actually mcdonalds earnings weren't that bad. It was the same store sales in the usa came in flat. This stock will bounce right back.

No, I think were going to get hit. I bought some puts on the 100 nasdaq qqq today.

[Andy]

So that was what MCD was about, didnt read it, just saw it sell off. QQQQ options are a favorite of mine, havent been playing them for a while. Good luck!

[TheRainman]

So that was what MCD was about, didnt read it, just saw it sell off. QQQQ options are a favorite of mine, havent been playing them for a while. Good luck!

I'm looking for a quarter cut on the fed funds rate tomorrow, which the market won't like. If they cut a half that tells me there's alot more going on then their telling us. Either way I think by friday will be down.

[TheRainman]

This market is really looking scary. We got the half point cut and stock are still getting hit hard even on good news.

Now their talking about the reinsurance companies down grades again.

My puts are looking real good right now.

And andy if they don't do something for the mortgage reinsurers the financials are going to get hit again.

[Andy]

Headlines keep screaming 'the end is now'...so marketwise I'm of the opinion that the down move has been made already. Looking over the stuff I look at for the week, things actually are flat to slightly up, seems only tech is getting hammered. I know C has been up (yay), qqqq is flat/up, the rest, well, let them hammer away at them after the outlook is revealed. Seems like a nice short term bear trap forming here.

Well, here's another day, lets see if the market drops to 0 or something...looks to be way too much pessimism in the market if all the doomsday headlines are any indication.

[Andy]

Wow, MSFT bid for YHOO really spiced up the futures market this morning. Are you holding short on QQQQ or thinking that maybe a bear trap has sprung?

[TheRainman]

Wow, MSFT bid for YHOO really spiced up the futures market this morning. Are you holding short on QQQQ or thinking that maybe a bear trap has sprung?


Andy, yes i'm still holding the qqqq puts but I got a little worried yesterday so I covered by buying some out of money feb qqqq calls just to cut my lose if i'm wrong.

This market is crazy. I never saw an administration spend so much money to keep the country from falling into a recesssion. this type of market can go either direction right now but sooner or later were going to get hit hard.

My strategies is going to play the market from both sides. On rallies sell, sell offs buy.

I did get lucky on the msft deal. I had some yhoo losing calls which just trippled in price today so I sold them.

Geron starting get get moving too.

I tell you a safe bet in my opinion. Allstate which pays a 3.1% divident got hit for having lower earning because of the california fires which cost them over 400million in claims. It's not going to have them cut their divident and this stock should jump right back. I bought the 47.5 calls for 3.25. If you look at the charts the bottom is 48. JMO!

[Andy]

I'll be checking into that, thanks. I love overdone selloffs, easy money playing the bounce IMO. Good deal on the YHOO. This AM I checked into the YHOO Feb. 20's which interestingly had something like 10K in volume yesterday. I'll bet someone knew about this and picked up a cool 1600% overnight profit. Ahh, to have a crystal ball.

Anyway, I'm still liking the way C is acting, so I'm continuing on this ride. We'll see how next week goes, and maybe find something new to play with.